“We received word of devastating flooding in the the northeastern region of Najin-Sonbong.  Typhoon rains caused a dam to collapse and to flood the city of Sonbong.  Many people have died, buildings have collapsed, bridges are out.  Relief workers have to walk miles to bring in food and supplies.  Fields and food supplies were destroyed.  Pray for a swift recovery in the area and that food and other needed supplies get in.  

We have no new information of the many people detained in both China and North Korea.  Please keep praying for Canadians Kevin and Julia Garratt in China and Pastor Hyeon Soo Lim of the Light Presbyterian Church, Toronto who continues to be held in North Korea.  Also remember American Peter Han in Tumen, China and South Korean pastors held in North Korea: Jong-wook Kim, Kuk-ki Kim and Chun-gil Choi.

The big news lately on relations between North and South Korea has been the tensions that escalated recently as South Korean soldiers were killed by North Korean land mines south of the border.  This led to charges and counter-charges.  However, we thank God for a new agreement that has resulted from the tension as both North and South seek to return to a more peaceful relationship.  This agreement also includes plans for visits among separated families bringing together North and South Korean relatives.  Continue to pray that the agreement not only hold but be the beginning of an ongoing improvement of relations.

Even as things seem to be cooling a bit between North and South, Kim Jong Un has been ordering increasing clamp down on the border with China to prevent defections.  New border fencing is being installed all along the border and security personnel are being rotated more frequently.  However, this is still not enough to prevent the truly determined from leaving as two families crossed into China from North Hamgyung Province last month.

Still, life goes on, such as it is, in much of the country.  Much as in South Korea, young women in North Korea are concerned about how they look and are occupying their summer time with getting plastic surgery, often without anesthesia.

As you know, we here at The Fourth River Project are thinking a lot about the future and the special issues that make eventual reunification, really the raising up of a New Korea, particularly difficult.  We are not the only ones thinking about these things.  Here is a thoughtful discussion of some of these issues, especially the problem of systemic bribery throughout the North.  Please continue to join us in prayer for North Korea now and for good preparation for the future.

Here is your prayer calendar for October in both Korean and English. Please click the link below.

English

Korean

In His Name,

Ben Torrey

Director

The Fourth River Project, Inc.

www.thefourthriver.org

Emerging Markets:

Emerging markets such as Turkey, South Africa, Malaysia, Indonesia, etc. have made a classic mistake of presuming the future (James 4). Assuming that China’s growth rate would remain very high (7-10% per year) these countries have borrowed enormous amounts of money and gone deeply into debt both corporately and personally. Much of this debt revolves the commodities and commodities markets, which have been necessary raw ingredients in China’s massive infrastructure build-out and urbanization (10-15 million Chinese moving from farms to the cities annually).

The dollar has been skyrocketing, especially against emerging market currencies, causing the repayment of dollar-denominated debt to be increasingly difficult as debt burdens have skyrocketed.

Prayer – 1st that the U.S. Fed will not raise interest rates, which would push the U.S. dollar even higher against emerging market currencies, and that banking and government officials in these countries will lower interest rates, and provide enormous amounts of liquidity (print money) to keep the debt contraction, which is presently underway and intense, from becoming catastrophic.

China: 

Their new premier has instituted a massive crackdown on corruption, which in the long run could be quite beneficial. However, in the short run it is scaring everyone to death (at least one execution so far), which is not exactly conducive to trying to “grow the economy”. In addition, China has experienced a massive bubble in their stock market which has now burst. While their economy revolves more around infrastructure build-out (highways, airports, dams, etc.), the massive urbanization mentioned earlier, manufacturing and exports the bursting of the stock bubble will certainly not help as there has been an exponential rise in lending outside of China’s “official” banking system (50% per year increase for 5 consecutive years- clearly unsustainable), much of it revolving around the stock market. 

Much of this debt will go bad and create bankruptcies or bailouts, which will hurt/slow China’s economy. China’s growth could go from the “official” 7% rate to as low as 4%, which would be great for most other countries, but such a radical slowdown (China’s economy was going at a 12% rate just 5 years ago), means that the engine of world economic growth (China) slowing so radically will cause all of the other cars on the train to crash (the other emerging markets). As the other emerging markets have become dependent on high rates of growth from China which is not happening.

My guess would be this could take 2-3 years to work out, and while I do not expect a collapse of the Chinese economy, and I do expect them to continue to grow over the long run, in the short run this is going to be tough. Bad debts will have to be cleansed (bankruptcies or bailouts) from the system before any semblance of economic growth can resume. China’s problems will literally affect everyone in the world, as they are the #2 size economy in the world after the United States. While the U.S. is bigger overall, the rest of the world (including Europe) has gotten addicted to rapid growth rates in China.

Prayer- That the Chinese officials will slowly let the air out of their debt and stock bubbles and not have a precipitous collapse.

United States: 

The U.S. is best position to weather this economic storm of any of the major players. Our banking system, after the sub-prime/leverage fiasco has been healing and the economy has been growing very slowly- but at least it’s growing. As best as I can tell, the only major vulnerability is our oil industry as we could see as much as a 30% shrinkage here, as people in the oil patch borrowed way too much money assuming oil prices would stay above $100 per barrel indefinitely (James 4). A combination of a very slight increase in supply above world demand was hammered by extreme leverage (borrowed money) in the energy patch and big banks related to energy and commodities. Now the forced liquidations will begin as banks, by law, must revalue all oil related loans every 6 months, and unfortunately it is “let the bleeding begin”. In the long run, this will likely result in a healthier, more stable oil industry overall with less debt in the system, but in the short run it will be very painful.

The U.S. only recently became the largest oil producer in the world (larger than Saudi Arabia and Russia), due to new technology revolving around horizontal drilling and fracking. Unfortunately, this oil price crash will cause a major contraction in the oil drilling and service industry, which will likely take another year or two, but within 24-36 months this oversupply will disappear and oil prices will likely go back up. Sometime in the 2020’s, I expect oil prices to go well above $200 a barrel as China’s economy gets back on track and India builds infrastructure, buys cars, and starts driving. Thus, all this hype over oversupply is way overblown.

In addition, I am very concerned about geopolitical stuff in the Middle East as Iran hates Saudi Arabia and Israel. Saudi Arabia hates Iran and ISIS hates everybody. Most of these countries need in excess of $100 a barrel to float their government budgets as most of their country’s revenues come from oil. Through the straits of Hormuz pass 30% of the world’s oil (Iran, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Kuwait). I believe that major geopolitical issues and possibly major wars could breakout within the next 2-3 years.

Prayer- That America’s oil industry will not be decimated as we are the chief producer in the free world. Excess debt will have to be cleansed from the system, but again it needs to be in a systematic controlled way not a massive crash.

Europe: Still has a fragile banking system and an unstable currency. Pray that the euro as a trading union and currency will not go into a chaotic fracture.

Japan: Is a massively aging society which has way too much government debt and unsustainable social spending structure for their old people, which are starting to outnumber their young people. Pray that evangelization will wake up and change Japan as I see no possible solution on how to fix the government’s long term (10-15 year) fiscal situation and debts.

Jerry Tuma
Macro-economist
Cornerstone Financial Services
Dallas, Texas
www.cornerstonereport.com

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Registered Representative offering securities through Independent Financial Group, LLC (IFG), a registered broker –dealer, member FINRA/SIPC.  Advisory Services offered through Cornerstone Financial Services, Inc. (CFS).  CFS and IFG are not affiliated firms.

Recently, our leadership team met and identified the following key prayer concerns that we hope you will share in intercession:

1. The migrant crisis in which tens of thousands continue to walk from the Middle East through Turkey or come via rickety boats across the Mediterranean needs our special prayers. It could be a huge opportunity for the Church to bring Christ to these people, but there is also the possibility of great danger through the infiltration of Islamic terrorists. Pray for the EU, the church leaders and for the migrants themselves in this biggest population movement since World War II.

2. Coming out of a August global prayer strategists meeting in London one strategy was recommended for wider implementation- pray 5 mins. daily at 11:55 am to noon for our world.


3. UPrising: World Youth Prayer Assembly  www.unitedprayerrising.com Please pray for Jerome Ocampo, the convener, the International Dream Team of youth ministry leaders and the Executive Team as they work together on arrangements for next July’s gathering in South Korea. Pray for the venue to be finalized and for a breakthrough in the provision of financial resources so that the WYPA can go ahead as planned. A new video and other materials are in the works to add to the website above and help in mobilizing for the UPrising around the world. A global fast starts September 28 for an Acts 2 outpouring of the Spirit and the overthrow of any spiritual opposition to this effort on behalf of the younger generation, which we believe is so much on God’s heart.

4. Latin America- there is a heavy attack on prayer leaders with increased illness and death along with prevalent corruption and a desire to remove current political leaders. Pray for Yanira Gonzalez and her colleagues in the region for His blood covering and protection at this difficult time.

5. 24/7 Prayer Movement- Hannah McVeigh and her colleagues are busy developing and supplying new resources to students. Pray for the distribution of these resources and the large 24/7 gathering they plan Oct. 22-25 in Vienna.


6. Africa Prayer and Mission gathering in Ethiopia, Oct. 26-31- Austen Ukachi asked for prayer for this event with focus on reaching the unreached, persecuted church and the Muslim challenge.

7. Global Proclamation Congress, June 15-22, Bangkok, with up to 5000 pastoral trainers. Tom Victor is working on a strategy to develop a culture of prayer among them and the 100,000 pastors they will impact. He is looking for good resources to give them. Pray for Tom, the GPC, and his efforts. http://gprocongress.org

 8. National and international security prayer initiative, October 18-20, Colorado Springs, USA- “Seeking God’s Face for the Deliverance and Destiny of America”. The IPC’s John Robb and others are seeking to bring prayer network leaders and strategic intercessors together from across the USA. Pray for prayer leaders who should come to respond and be there and for a good convergence in the unity of the Spirit. Pray too for an effective strategy for national and international spiritual preparedness in this time of great vulnerability to attack by hostile agents, whether terrorists or enemy nations.

9. Persian Gulf prayer initiative in February. Christian leaders from the guest worker community are seeking to organize a region-impacting prayer gathering. Pray for this vital initiative to come together and attract many from all nationalities around the region.

10. Prayer Hub and the IPC Website- Andy Page is working on a Prayer Hub that will connect various prayer websites. He is also upgrading the IPC website to include it and make it more “lean and mean” with resources that are even more relevant and helpful. Pray for him and his important efforts to resource the international prayer movement in this vital way.